The NBL's regular season reached its conclusion on Saturday, with Melbourne United's 10-point victory over South East Melbourne Phoenix at John Cain Arena confirming the playoff seeds for the six teams taking part in the post-season.
The play-in tournament, which was introduced by the league in 2023, returns again in 2025. Similar to the NBA's version, the higher third and fourth seeds will clash to qualify for the three-game semi-finals series against the NBL's second placed team. The loser will play a sudden death match against the winner of the single elimination final between the fifth and sixth seed. The winner of this "play-in game" will face the first seed in the semi-finals.
It all begins on Tuesday night in Perth, where the Perth Wildcats will face the Phoenix to earn the right to play Melbourne United in the semi-finals.
Seeding Qualifier - Perth Wildcats (3rd) v South East Melbourne Phoenix (4th)
The Perth Wildcats have returned to the post-season in style, led by MVP favourite and NBL leading scorer Bryce Cotton. His 49-point outing against the Adelaide 36ers to close their regular season campaign has provided the Wildcats with plenty of momentum heading into this game, an exciting prospect with a home final in front of the loud Wildcat faithful on the cards.
What's been most impressive about Perth this season, however, has been their ability to surround Cotton with consistent second and third options, generating points even when he's not firing at his best. The Wildcats' 18.7 assists per game ranks third, an improvement on last season's 16.6 which ranked seventh. They also have four players averaging double-digit points, an improvement on 2023-24 where they had just three. Perth also have the third most second chance points per game, highlighting their tenacious effort in the halfcourt. Against the Phoenix, who are one of the better defensive rebounding teams, these areas will be paramount in a high-stakes playoff game for Perth to deliver in the playoffs again.
South East Melbourne's bounce back season has been inspirational, with the off-season addition of Nathan Sobey proving to be the difference in turning the Phoenix from wooden-spooners to a legitimate top four side.
The Phoenix have depth everywhere you look, with five players averaging double-digit points and many more being capable of producing when needed. Look no further than 21-year-old Owen Foxwell, who, in just fifth start for the year, recorded 22 points and 5 three-pointers in a crucial win over Adelaide. The Phoenix are a high-volume three-point shooting team but don't convert well at a 33.9% clip. This will need to change against the Wildcats who are a stingy perimeter defence, allowing just 27.7 three-point attempts per game. Giving their star shooters in Foxwell and Angus Glover more minutes may be the key to the Phoenix overcoming the odds, because if they can get hot early, they'll likely give Perth a run for their money.
The Wildcats enter this game as clear favourites, having won three of the four matchups against the Phoenix this season, including both of their games at home. In a do-or-die finals game, however, anything is possible.
Play-In Qualifier - Sydney Kings (5th) v Adelaide 36ers (6th)
This matchup poses some intriguing questions for the Sydney Kings.
Offensively, Sydney have been underwhelming in 2024-25, shooting a below average 44.2% from the field and join the lowly Tasmania to not have a player average at least 18 points. However, the Kings have by far and wide the stingiest defence about, leading the league in blocks per game, opponent field goal percentage and opponent points per possession. It's remarkable how polarising each end of the floor is for the Kings, making this season equally frustrating as it is hopeful for Sydney fans.
The dynamic of the Play-In Qualifier will be one to watch because up against Sydney's defence is the most electric offense in the league. The 36ers' offense contains three of the NBL's top 10 scorers, headlined by former NBA sixth man of the year Montrezl Harrell, who has been a revelation in his debut NBL season. The 36ers get 25 points a night out of their shifty point guard Kendric Davis, 20 from Harrell and another 18 from former King Dejan Vasiljevic, emphasising Adelaide's incredible top-end talent.
However, the 36ers enter the post-season on a three-game slide, finishing with a subpar 13-16 record. Considering the strength of Sydney's defence, it is paramount the 36ers stars continue their run of form which has them as the NBL's second-most efficient offense, trailing the 20-9 Illawarra Hawks.
It's impossible to know how this one plays out. The 36ers won the season series 2-1 and Sydney haven't beaten them since the opening weekend of the season, but Sydney have homecourt advantage and Adelaide's confidence could be knocked after a rough couple of weeks. It's clear this game will be a clash of two distinct playstyles - Adelaide's offensive firepower against Sydney's brick wall of a defence - and ultimately, that will decide the winner of this single-game eliminator.
