Alex de Minaur's second consecutive Australian Open quarterfinal defeat once again showcased everything that has defined his rise into the ATP's top 10. His relentless effort and refusal to concede were evident throughout, even after world number one Carlos Alcaraz seized control of the match early in the second set.
But what he couldn't do, and what he has rarely been able to do against the elite, is get the match on his terms. De Minaur, similarly to his 2025 quarterfinal against Jannik Sinner, was overpowered by Alcaraz.
De Minaur's fight has never been in question, unlike fellow Australian men's tennis players. But as men's tennis has become increasingly dominated by baseline power and heavy ground-strokes, his latest Grand Slam exit again exposed an uncomfortable reality.
Against players like Sinner and Alcaraz, effort simply isn't enough and de Minaur can't match them from the baseline.
De Minaur himself acknowledged the challenge after the match, conceding the gap was difficult to bridge.
“He's so strong, he's able to generate so much force,” De Minaur said of Alcaraz.
“It was pretty tough for me to really hurt him at all.”
De Minaur has made a conscious effort to add power to his groundstrokes, but admits that comes with added risk.
“I'm hitting the ball bigger than I previously have in these types of matches, but I'm still not able to hit through him,” he said.
“At the moment, the way my natural groundstrokes are, they're quite flat, and it's quite difficult for me. There's a whole lot of risk for me to play at a very high ball speed.”
Alcaraz said De Minaur's attempt to play more aggressively in the big matches can sometimes make him easier to play against.
“When he's trying to play against the best or the top players, he's trying to be more aggressive, which sometimes he's just out of his comfort zone,” Alcaraz said.
“Sometimes we're seeing him miss quite often in some quite easy balls. We notice that, and we know how to approach the match, because we're one step forward in that case.”
The numbers are confronting. Across 19 career meetings with Sinner and Alcaraz, de Minaur is yet to record a win. That record does not take away from the fact he is one of the most competitive players on the tour, but it does raise the question about what his Grand Slam ceiling looks like.
De Minaur's game is built on speed and counterpunching. His style has proven effective against most players around the world on numerous surfaces, but players like Alcaraz and Sinner can consistently take time away from him with their heavy groundstrokes and playmaking ability. When rallies extend, De Minaur is often forced into defending and scrambling from several metres behind the baseline, absorbing pace from the ground strokes of his opponent.
At 26, De Minaur looks every bit a top ten player in the world, and with the right draw, he may contend for a Grand Slam at some point. But as baseline power becomes even more dominant, his pathway to a Slam win appears increasingly narrow.
His fight will continue to earn him respect and see him consistently reach the second week of Slams, but whether it can ever deliver a breakthrough against the very best remains an important question.
